I Nailed a Robotaxi Forecast In 2013. Here’s Why Elon Keeps Blowing It

A 2013 robotaxi forecast that pointed to the mid-2020s now looks surprisingly accurate.

Waymo, Baidu Apollo, and Wayve are preparing London deployments, showing autonomous vehicles are finally moving into major cities.

The piece argues that self-driving commercialization is advancing, but timelines remain hard to predict because regulation and real-world rollout lag technical progress.

It also says Elon Musk’s long-running self-driving promises have repeatedly proved too optimistic.