Why the 2026 Hurricane Season Might Not Be That Bad

NOAA forecasts a below-average 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, with 8 to 14 named storms, 3 to 6 hurricanes, and 1 to 3 major hurricanes.

An emerging El Niño could suppress activity, but unusually warm Atlantic waters may still fuel stronger storms.

Sahara dust could also dampen development, making the outlook uncertain despite the quieter forecast.

NOAA said staffing and data cuts under the Trump administration have added challenges, and it is expanding drones and AI-based forecast tools.

Even a mild season can be dangerous, since a few storms can still cause major damage and strain preparedness efforts.