If You Bet on Polymarket, This New Study May Cause You Physical Pain

A new study of 1.7 million accounts and $13.76 billion in bets finds prediction markets are dominated by a tiny, highly profitable minority.

The top 3.14% of users captured most profits and trading volume, while most participants lost money.

The results challenge the idea that prediction market accuracy comes from broad “wisdom of crowds.”

Researchers say markets like Polymarket and Kalshi may rely more on a few informed traders than on the average participant.