The sigmoids won't save you | Hacker News

Hacker News commenters debated whether AI is approaching an AGI plateau or still accelerating through stacked breakthroughs.

The discussion cited benchmarks, METR and ARC AGI results, and OpenAI’s revised Microsoft contract as evidence on both sides.

Skeptics see a sigmoid-like slowdown; others argue history shows repeated technological leaps can keep compounding.

The thread has implications for AI safety, policy, and investment, since forecasts depend on whether progress is near a hard limit or not.