2.8 Days to Disaster: Scientists Warn Low Earth Orbit Could Suddenly Collapse

A new study warns that low Earth orbit could face a major collision risk within days if satellite tracking and maneuvering were disrupted.

Using June 2025 satellite data, researchers estimated a catastrophic collision could occur in about 2.8 days without avoidance control, or 5.5 days by a broader measure.

That is a sharp drop from 164 days in 2018, reflecting the crowded rise of mega-constellations like Starlink.

The study also says solar storms could worsen the danger by increasing drag and disrupting communications and tracking.