2026 will be a historic year for smartphones. Specifically, the worst year in history

Counterpoint Research now expects 2026 smartphone shipments to drop 13.9%, worse than its earlier 12.4% forecast.

Rising memory and storage costs, driven by AI data center demand, are making phones more expensive and weakening demand.

The biggest hit should be on low-end and mid-range models, where price sensitivity is highest.

Brands like Apple, Samsung, Xiaomi, and Honor may face pressure to raise prices or trim device options.