UBS Cuts S&P 500 Target as Oil Shock and War Risks Recast Wall Street’s 2026 Outlook

UBS trimmed its 2026 S&P 500 targets to 7,500 year-end and 7,000 mid-year in an April 6 note.

The bank said Middle East conflict-driven oil supply damage could keep prices elevated and delay Fed rate cuts.

UBS kept its 2026 EPS forecast at $310 and said earnings remain intact even as valuations face pressure from higher rates and oil-driven inflation.

The firm expects AI-led profit growth and eventual Fed support to help stocks recover once geopolitical effects fade.