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How did Anthropic measure AI's "theoretical capabilities" in the job market?

TL;DR AI

Key summary

2 min read
  1. Anthropic traced its “theoretical capability” baseline to an August 2023 report titled “GPTs are GPTs.”

  2. The 2023 study used O*NET task breakdowns plus human and GPT-4-assisted labeling to judge whether LLMs or future LLM-powered software could halve task time.

  3. Under that methodology researchers estimated about 15% of tasks could be halved and about 2.3% of occupations had at least half their tasks exposed to LLMs, and the authors warned of labeling subjectivity.

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